Not Just El Niño – Super El Niño

Recently, I read an article on how the current Super El Niño should bring Northern Arizona heavier monsoon rains than recent years. I was thrilled! That is, until, later in the article, when I read that different parts of the country, as well as other continents, could receive drought conditions, flooding, devastating heat, and an uptick in hurricane activity due to the same phenomenon.

According to Science Times, a Super El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific rise significantly above average, often exceeding 2°C (35° F) anomalies. This intense Pacific warming disrupts the balance between the ocean and atmosphere, affecting weather systems that rely on stable temperature differences across the equator. This is not the first Super El Niño; similar patterns emerged in 1982, 1997, and 2015, all of which led to historic global disruptions. But this year’s is forecast to be the most extreme, causing the most widespread global impacts.

In addition to “non-survivable” high temperatures in some areas, those impacts include a shift in the jet stream, which can result in heavy rains but also droughts in areas that aren’t typically at risk for those conditions. Tropical storm activity is also disturbed: those in the Pacific can become much more prolific, while the Atlantic remains relatively quiet. And, both marine and agricultural ecosystems may suffer, reducing fish populations and crop yields. (So, yes, grocery prices may go up even more. If you’re inclined, this may be a good time to stock up on pantry staples.)

Severe Weather Europe compares this disruption to a massive planetary heat engine which can affect global climate for several years, including seasonal patterns. Depending on where you live, the effects you see may differ drastically from your neighbors across the seas, or even across the country.

This article gives more details of the conditions certain regions can expect from this Super El Niño, but here is a summary of my findings: In the US, the West and South should expect more storms, flooding, and a higher risk of deadly heatwaves. In South America, those near and north of the Amazon may have more drought risk and heat stress while the southern part of the continent receives more flooding. European countries can expect record high temperatures throughout the summer. Eastern Africa has the potential for higher flood risk while those in Southern Africa deal with drought and extreme heat. In the densely populated areas of South Asia, severe drought and life-threatening heatwaves are expected. Southeast Asia and the Middle East face heat extremes that may exceed that which can be survived by certain populations. Australia and New Zealand may also be hit with non-survivable heatwaves, as well as widespread drought and increased wildfire risk. Pretty frightening for all of us, I’d say.

Long-term global warming, driven by greenhouse gases, is making our climate more prone to extreme events like this, a write-up from the Global Climate Risks Platform points out. Further, a Super El Niño is considered a risk multiplier, increasing the frequency, intensity, and geographic spread of life-threatening conditions.

I’ll leave the last words to Rachel Carson, author of Silent Spring: Man’s attitude toward nature today is critically important simply because we have a fateful power to alter and destroy nature. But man is a part of nature, and his war against nature is inevitably a war against himself.

Blessings for Safety,

Lisa

The content of this article is for educational and informational purposes only, and is not intended as medical advice. Please consult with a qualified health care professional before acting on any information presented herein. Any statements about the possible health benefits of any subject discussed have not been evaluated by medical professionals or the Food & Drug Administration and are not intended to diagnose, treat, cure or prevent any disease or illness.